《電子技術(shù)應(yīng)用》
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光纖企業(yè)半年報(bào)集體飄紅 光通信迎來(lái)最好時(shí)代

2012-09-04
作者:陳寶亮
來(lái)源:來(lái)源:通信產(chǎn)業(yè)報(bào)

近日,烽火通信、亨通光電、中天科技陸續(xù)發(fā)布了2012年度半年財(cái)報(bào)。主流光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜" target="_blank">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" 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title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜" title="光纖光纜">光纖光纜廠商收入飆升,尤其在光纖光纜領(lǐng)域,均保持在25%~30%的增長(zhǎng)幅度。業(yè)內(nèi)幾家主流證券分析機(jī)構(gòu)均給予“增持”或者“推薦”、“強(qiáng)烈推薦”評(píng)級(jí)。

即便全球五大通信設(shè)備商集體出現(xiàn)利潤(rùn)下滑,引發(fā)通信界的寒冬。但光通信、尤其是光纖光纜市場(chǎng)就像是寒冬里的一把火,集體飄紅。

光纖光纜供不應(yīng)求

財(cái)報(bào)顯示,今年上半年三大光纖光纜廠商集體增收。烽火通信光纖及線纜產(chǎn)品業(yè)務(wù)收入1.16億元人民幣,較上年增長(zhǎng)26%,利潤(rùn)率為17.83%;亨通光電光通信產(chǎn)品營(yíng)業(yè)收入14.96億元,同比增長(zhǎng)34.53%,利潤(rùn)率為35.16%;中天科技光通信產(chǎn)品收入14.79億元,同比增長(zhǎng)25.04%,利潤(rùn)率為24.64%。

其實(shí),市場(chǎng)才剛剛開(kāi)始。截止目前,國(guó)內(nèi)三大運(yùn)營(yíng)商只有中國(guó)電信啟動(dòng)了2012年的光纖集采,規(guī)模2400萬(wàn)芯公里。但即便只有中國(guó)電信的需求刺激,光纖市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)呈現(xiàn)供不應(yīng)求。

首先,光纖需求量上升,據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì),今年全年國(guó)內(nèi)光纖需求約為1.5億芯公里。但國(guó)內(nèi)光纖產(chǎn)能預(yù)計(jì)約為1.3億芯公里,而且產(chǎn)能受到稀有氣體等原材料制約,如氦氣等原材料受到國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)制約,從去年年底開(kāi)始國(guó)際氣體供應(yīng)商開(kāi)始限制向國(guó)內(nèi)廠商供應(yīng),光纖產(chǎn)能一度緊張。

因光纖供求緊張局面,光纖價(jià)格出現(xiàn)回升。首先,中國(guó)電信此次集采價(jià)格小幅上漲。同時(shí),針對(duì)一些需要采購(gòu)光纖的光纜公司,光纖價(jià)格大幅上漲。從而一定程度上推動(dòng)光纖利潤(rùn)上升。

考慮到下半年中國(guó)移動(dòng)聯(lián)通" title="中國(guó)聯(lián)通">中國(guó)聯(lián)通啟動(dòng)光纖光纜集采,必然會(huì)進(jìn)一步加劇供求緊張的局面,光纖利潤(rùn)仍有上升空間。

但也要看到,幾大廠商在2011年初就預(yù)計(jì)到這種局面,去年同期財(cái)報(bào)顯示,該三家廠商均有募資對(duì)光纖產(chǎn)品線進(jìn)行產(chǎn)能擴(kuò)張。所以,雖然主流證券分析機(jī)構(gòu)均對(duì)光纖市場(chǎng)看好。但也有專家指出,寬帶戰(zhàn)略的刺激使得三大運(yùn)營(yíng)商,甚至國(guó)家電網(wǎng)、廣電對(duì)光纖的部署規(guī)模加速上升,但幾年內(nèi)市場(chǎng)也將飽和。而幾大廠商的產(chǎn)能擴(kuò)張有可能會(huì)在今后幾年逐步呈現(xiàn)出產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩局面,最好的辦法是及時(shí)開(kāi)發(fā)新的市場(chǎng)空間以釋放產(chǎn)能壓力,國(guó)際市場(chǎng)是不錯(cuò)的選擇。

國(guó)際市場(chǎng):大但是難

作為重點(diǎn)市場(chǎng),國(guó)際市場(chǎng)一直被光纖光纜廠商作為重點(diǎn)和潛力市場(chǎng)。從上半年財(cái)報(bào)也不難看出,國(guó)內(nèi)光纖光纜廠商近年來(lái)的國(guó)際市場(chǎng)開(kāi)拓已經(jīng)取得一定成績(jī)——烽火通信財(cái)報(bào)顯示,2012年上半年,烽火海外業(yè)務(wù)收入為3.14億元,同比增長(zhǎng)39.09%;亨通光電則在2011年全年實(shí)現(xiàn)海外業(yè)務(wù)收入增長(zhǎng)近150%,今年上半年受?chē)?guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷影響,海外市場(chǎng)收入為6600萬(wàn)元,增長(zhǎng)2%,但亨通近幾年一直在加速海外市場(chǎng)的布局;中天科技海外業(yè)務(wù)收入3.1億,同比增長(zhǎng)76.03%。

事實(shí)上,國(guó)內(nèi)光通信企業(yè)在國(guó)外斬獲頗豐。其中一廠商非洲總代告訴記者,海外市場(chǎng)可以很大程度上釋放國(guó)內(nèi)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)壓力:國(guó)內(nèi)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)過(guò)于集中于價(jià)格,而國(guó)外更側(cè)重于總體方案,利潤(rùn)有保障。她舉例介紹:“在非洲曾簽過(guò)一個(gè)2000萬(wàn)元的訂單,純利潤(rùn)為1000萬(wàn)元。”

但從總量來(lái)說(shuō),其實(shí)對(duì)光纖光纜廠商來(lái)說(shuō),目前國(guó)際市場(chǎng)份額占比仍不足總業(yè)務(wù)量的10%,基本各廠商均依賴國(guó)內(nèi)光纖市場(chǎng)支撐。

并且,目前國(guó)際市場(chǎng)格局變動(dòng)較大,市場(chǎng)在漸漸開(kāi)始轉(zhuǎn)移,Ovum預(yù)計(jì),2015年之內(nèi)中國(guó)仍將引領(lǐng)全球FTTx市場(chǎng),而在此之后,F(xiàn)TTx市場(chǎng)將從中國(guó)轉(zhuǎn)移到金磚五國(guó)中的其他四國(guó):印度、巴西、俄羅斯以及南非。中國(guó)聯(lián)通研究院副總工程師唐雄燕向記者介紹,今后很長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間內(nèi)光通信市場(chǎng)的增長(zhǎng)點(diǎn)將由這幾個(gè)國(guó)家創(chuàng)造。這也是目前光纖光纜企業(yè)的主要布局點(diǎn)。

東方證券分析指出,海外主要主流的配線廠商如3M、泰科ADC其配線產(chǎn)品營(yíng)收規(guī)模都在10億美元級(jí)別,海外市場(chǎng)不容忽視。光通信公司針對(duì)海外市場(chǎng)進(jìn)行管理體系和人才儲(chǔ)備方面的投入,預(yù)計(jì)今年有望進(jìn)入收獲期,海外市場(chǎng)基于深圳基地制造,對(duì)外拓展有望逐步進(jìn)入加速增長(zhǎng)期。

“并不容易,康寧、OFS等企業(yè)其實(shí)早已經(jīng)在這些國(guó)家布局并實(shí)現(xiàn)了產(chǎn)業(yè)化,我們進(jìn)軍這些地方不僅要面對(duì)當(dāng)?shù)禺a(chǎn)業(yè)壓力,還要應(yīng)對(duì)國(guó)際巨頭的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。”烽火通信副總裁熊向峰向記者表示。

此外,2012年華為遭遇澳大利亞政府的禁標(biāo)項(xiàng)目,受牽連的同時(shí)還有亨通光電。亨通光電總經(jīng)理錢(qián)建林向記者介紹,該項(xiàng)目中,華為的寬帶整體方案打包了亨通光電的光纖光纜,兩家廠商皆成為“政治經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)”的受害者。亨通光電上半年海外市場(chǎng)增長(zhǎng)放緩也與此有關(guān)。

華為、中興近幾年的海外擴(kuò)張中為國(guó)內(nèi)光纖光纜廠商進(jìn)軍海外提供了極為廣闊的平臺(tái),但隨著兩大國(guó)際巨頭遭遇國(guó)際貿(mào)易阻力,光纖光纜廠商也因此受挫。而且可以想象,在今后幾年的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中,國(guó)內(nèi)光纖光纜廠商同樣會(huì)遭遇如中興、華為一樣的困境。

“這主要還是因?yàn)楹诵母?jìng)爭(zhēng)力不強(qiáng),”錢(qián)建林介紹,“目前,我們產(chǎn)品的主要優(yōu)勢(shì)是價(jià)格。還需進(jìn)一步向核心領(lǐng)域轉(zhuǎn)型。”

向高精尖轉(zhuǎn)型

尤其值得注意的是,國(guó)內(nèi)光纖光纜廠商在光棒等高精尖領(lǐng)域轉(zhuǎn)型已經(jīng)初有成績(jī)。

以中天科技為例,其光纖預(yù)制棒在2011年10月份已經(jīng)實(shí)現(xiàn)200噸的產(chǎn)能,今年每個(gè)月可以達(dá)產(chǎn)能15-18噸,上半年大約貢獻(xiàn)了1167萬(wàn)的凈利潤(rùn)。華泰證券預(yù)計(jì),在光棒產(chǎn)能擴(kuò)張到600噸的規(guī)模時(shí)候,每年能為中天貢獻(xiàn)5千萬(wàn)左右的凈利潤(rùn)。“

此外,在2011年底,亨通光電光棒產(chǎn)能已實(shí)現(xiàn)350噸,滿足自身需求的40%;烽火通信與藤倉(cāng)公司合資成立的光棒項(xiàng)目已經(jīng)步入成熟期并開(kāi)始貢獻(xiàn)業(yè)績(jī),投資收益約為385萬(wàn)元。

據(jù)記者了解,目前我國(guó)整體光纖預(yù)制棒產(chǎn)能約為1000噸,國(guó)內(nèi)需求預(yù)計(jì)約3600噸。仍有2600噸需進(jìn)口。長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)光棒、光纖、光纜三大領(lǐng)域的利潤(rùn)比值基本維持在7:2:1。雖然近幾年國(guó)內(nèi)光棒產(chǎn)量不斷增長(zhǎng),但仍有大部分光棒利潤(rùn)外流至日韓企業(yè)。

2012年上半年,烽火通信與藤倉(cāng)公司共出資3000萬(wàn)美元對(duì)光棒項(xiàng)目增資;中天科技募資8.7億元擴(kuò)充光纖預(yù)制棒項(xiàng)目;亨通光電的光棒二期項(xiàng)目也已在進(jìn)行時(shí),預(yù)計(jì)2013年底完成,產(chǎn)能600噸,可貢獻(xiàn)利潤(rùn)1.2億元。光棒利潤(rùn)值正逐步向國(guó)內(nèi)回流。

此外,近兩年國(guó)際通信流量激增,國(guó)際海纜業(yè)務(wù)迅猛增長(zhǎng),中天科技從2011年至今已分別在美國(guó)、沙特等國(guó)家和地區(qū)取得突破;亨通光電也已經(jīng)特種光電復(fù)合海底電纜及海底光纜項(xiàng)目并已投入生產(chǎn)。海纜素有“光纜之王”美譽(yù),其利潤(rùn)值也遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于普通光纜。中天、亨通的海纜項(xiàng)目也將在今后幾年顯現(xiàn)其威力。

從財(cái)報(bào)分析來(lái)看,光纖光纜企業(yè)之所以在通信界的冬天里逆勢(shì)上揚(yáng),很大程度上依賴于寬帶中國(guó)戰(zhàn)略的刺激。而國(guó)內(nèi)光纖光纜企業(yè)的任務(wù)則是在這段增值期內(nèi)實(shí)現(xiàn)向高精尖轉(zhuǎn)型,并逐步實(shí)現(xiàn)海外擴(kuò)張,如此方能在今后長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中立于不敗之地。

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