大數(shù)據(jù)時代:數(shù)值天氣預(yù)報(bào)的機(jī)遇與挑戰(zhàn)
網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全與數(shù)據(jù)治理
郭亞楠1,2,曹小群1,周夢鴿1,彭柯澄1
1 國防科技大學(xué)氣象海洋學(xué)院,湖南長沙410073;2 海軍航空大學(xué),遼寧葫蘆島125001
摘要: 隨著地球觀測系統(tǒng)及數(shù)值模擬方法的不斷發(fā)展,數(shù)值天氣預(yù)報(bào)研究進(jìn)入以數(shù)據(jù)驅(qū)動為核心的新范式,大氣科學(xué)也邁入了大數(shù)據(jù)時代,大數(shù)據(jù)技術(shù)賦能數(shù)值天氣預(yù)報(bào)發(fā)展成為大氣科學(xué)研究的熱點(diǎn)方向。從氣象海洋大數(shù)據(jù)的內(nèi)涵、分類及其特征出發(fā),概括和梳理了氣象海洋大數(shù)據(jù)在數(shù)值天氣預(yù)報(bào)的應(yīng)用,從技術(shù)方面,對資料同化、物理過程參數(shù)化、數(shù)值預(yù)報(bào)產(chǎn)品訂正,以及機(jī)理與數(shù)據(jù)融合的模式開發(fā)等問題進(jìn)行分析,并對相關(guān)應(yīng)用進(jìn)行了深入探討和展望,從而為氣象海洋大數(shù)據(jù)與數(shù)值天氣預(yù)報(bào)的融合發(fā)展提供重要參考依據(jù)。
中圖分類號:P4567文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識碼:ADOI:10.19358/j.issn.2097-1788.2024.01.004
引用格式:郭亞楠,曹小群,周夢鴿,等. 大數(shù)據(jù)時代:數(shù)值天氣預(yù)報(bào)的機(jī)遇與挑戰(zhàn)[J].網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全與數(shù)據(jù)治理,2024,43(1):28-32.
引用格式:郭亞楠,曹小群,周夢鴿,等. 大數(shù)據(jù)時代:數(shù)值天氣預(yù)報(bào)的機(jī)遇與挑戰(zhàn)[J].網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全與數(shù)據(jù)治理,2024,43(1):28-32.
The big data era: opportunities and challenges for numerical weather prediction
Guo Yanan1,2, Cao Xiaoqun1, Zhou Mengge1, Peng Kecheng1
1 College of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, China; 2 Naval Aviation University, Huludao 125001, China
Abstract: With the continuous development of earth observation systems and numerical simulation methods, numerical weather prediction research has entered a new paradigm driven by data. Atmospheric science has also entered the era of big data, and the application of big data technology in the development of numerical weather prediction has become a hot topic in atmospheric science research. From the connotation, classification, and characteristics of meteorological and oceanic big data, it summarizes the application of meteorological and oceanic big data in numerical weather prediction. From a technical perspective, it analyzes issues such as data assimilation, parameterization of physical processes, correction of numerical forecast products, and development of models for the integration of big data and physical laws. Through indepth exploration and prospects of relevant applications, important reference basis is provided for the integration and development of meteorological and oceanic big data and numerical weather prediction.
Key words : meteorology; oceans; big data; numerical weather prediction
引言
大氣系統(tǒng)是一個高度復(fù)雜的系統(tǒng),包括大氣運(yùn)動、輻射傳輸、湍流等多個物理過程的相互作用,數(shù)值模式成為深入理解和研究這些復(fù)雜過程的有效工具。通過模型的建立和改進(jìn),可以揭示天氣系統(tǒng)中的非線性、時空耦合、不確定性等特征,為深入研究氣候變化、氣象災(zāi)害等提供基礎(chǔ)。數(shù)值天氣預(yù)報(bào)從20世紀(jì)50年代進(jìn)行了首次成功嘗試以來,經(jīng)過七十多年的發(fā)展,已經(jīng)成為一個跨學(xué)科的復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)性工程,使得天氣預(yù)報(bào)從傳統(tǒng)的以統(tǒng)計(jì)和經(jīng)驗(yàn)為主的天氣圖方法轉(zhuǎn)變成為客觀定量的科學(xué)[1-3]。近年來,大數(shù)據(jù)技術(shù)的出現(xiàn),深刻改變了現(xiàn)代科學(xué)技術(shù)的發(fā)展,極有可能引起新一輪的技術(shù)變革[4-7]。
作者信息:
郭亞楠1,2,曹小群1,周夢鴿1,彭柯澄1
(1 國防科技大學(xué)氣象海洋學(xué)院,湖南長沙410073;2 海軍航空大學(xué),遼寧葫蘆島125001)
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