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理性看待光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)熱

2009-05-15
作者:來源:解放日報

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title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)大會剛剛落下帷幕。與往年不同的是,今年論壇在全球金融危機(jī)的大背景下,給目前“火爆”的太陽能光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)一個獨特的視角:

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??? 節(jié)節(jié)攀高的國際油價、日益惡化的環(huán)境、全球能源問題……這些使得越來越多的國家開始實行“陽光計劃”,開發(fā)太陽能資源。光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)作為可再生能源領(lǐng)域的重要生力軍,已成為世界上增長最快的高新技術(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)之一。

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??? 然而由于國內(nèi)市場需求不足,我國95%以上的光伏產(chǎn)品出口國外。突如其來的全球金融危機(jī),使國際光伏市場迅速萎縮,國內(nèi)企業(yè)海外訂單頓時銳減,太陽能光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)備受打擊。如何理性看待光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)?如何度過行業(yè)“寒冬”?如何使企業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展?———成了擺在每一家光伏企業(yè)眼前的課題。

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??? 產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展迅猛

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??? 太陽能光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)“火”了!

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??? 一組數(shù)據(jù)可以看出國際光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的步伐:2006年全球光伏電源累計裝機(jī)總?cè)萘窟_(dá)865萬千瓦,年產(chǎn)量達(dá)255萬千瓦;而2007年全球光伏電源累計裝機(jī)總?cè)萘窟_(dá)1264萬千瓦,年產(chǎn)量達(dá)400萬千瓦,年增長率超過50%。專家預(yù)測,未來10年甚至50年內(nèi),光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)的年增長速度將高達(dá)30%-40%。

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??? 依賴國際市場,國內(nèi)光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)得到了驚人的發(fā)展。據(jù)中國科學(xué)院電工研究所嚴(yán)陸光院士介紹,我國光伏電池的總年產(chǎn)量由2004年的5萬千瓦增加到2007年的108萬千瓦,占世界總產(chǎn)量的27%左右,光伏組件產(chǎn)量達(dá)172萬千瓦,生產(chǎn)企業(yè)達(dá)到50多家。不僅專業(yè)企業(yè)數(shù)量增多,而且從原料生產(chǎn)、電池片生產(chǎn)到應(yīng)用系統(tǒng),我國的太陽能光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)已初步形成具有規(guī)?;?、專業(yè)化的產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈條,并產(chǎn)生了一批具有國際競爭力的企業(yè)。目前,無錫尚德、賽維LDK、浙江昱輝、天威英利等10多家公司先后在海外上市。

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??? 根據(jù)國際專業(yè)機(jī)構(gòu)SHELL的預(yù)測,到2050年,太陽能在能源結(jié)構(gòu)中的比例約為13%~15%;歐盟能源的預(yù)測更為可觀,到2050年太陽能在能源結(jié)構(gòu)中所占比重將達(dá)到28%,其中太陽能發(fā)電達(dá)25.5%;到本世紀(jì)末太陽能發(fā)電將達(dá)63%。

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??? 目前,我國光伏電池產(chǎn)業(yè)在多方推動之下,預(yù)計2010年總生產(chǎn)能力可達(dá)到400萬千瓦,產(chǎn)品的質(zhì)量與價格將更接近于國際水平,當(dāng)產(chǎn)品更多用于國內(nèi)發(fā)電時,預(yù)計到2020年利用太陽能的年發(fā)電量達(dá)21.6億度,占一次能源消費的8%。

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??? “兩頭在外”的憂慮

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??? 盡管,我國太陽能光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展氣勢如虹,但繁榮背后也存在著隱憂。

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??? 一直以來,光伏電池的重要原材料———多晶硅主要依賴進(jìn)口。雖然我國多晶硅產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展迅速,產(chǎn)能也火速從2005年的400噸增長至2007年的4310噸,但高端的提純技術(shù)還掌握在國外競爭者手中。根據(jù)現(xiàn)有的生產(chǎn)技術(shù),千噸級以上的多晶硅生產(chǎn)線才具有規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)效益,而最先進(jìn)的多晶硅大規(guī)模生產(chǎn)技術(shù)仍然掌握在美國、日本、德國三國手中。國際化工和半導(dǎo)體巨頭們一方面在產(chǎn)能擴(kuò)張方面相當(dāng)謹(jǐn)慎,另一方面集體達(dá)成了技術(shù)保密和不對第三方轉(zhuǎn)讓的協(xié)議。

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??? 就市場而言,我國太陽能企業(yè)的絕大部分產(chǎn)品出口到國外,國內(nèi)并沒有真正意義上的光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)市場。中國科學(xué)院電工研究所嚴(yán)陸光院士分析認(rèn)為,市場在外的主要原因在于價格,雖然光伏電池價格已有明顯下降,但每千瓦光伏電源的總投資仍然需要5萬元左右,每度電能的成本達(dá)5元,仍比煤電高。據(jù)了解,目前太陽能發(fā)電的成本大約是生物物質(zhì)發(fā)電的7至12倍,風(fēng)能發(fā)電的6至10倍,更是傳統(tǒng)煤電的11至18倍。也正是由于這一原因,盡管我國的光伏發(fā)電產(chǎn)能較高,但應(yīng)用的裝機(jī)總量僅僅為10萬千瓦,主要是農(nóng)村與邊遠(yuǎn)地區(qū)、通信與照明的小型電源,而規(guī)模達(dá)到1000千瓦的中型聯(lián)網(wǎng)電站僅有幾座在大城市里示范運行。?


??? 這種原料和市場“兩頭在外”的尷尬局面,不僅令我國的太陽能光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)處于成本高、利潤低的困境,更使整個行業(yè)面臨著潛在的危機(jī)。

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??? 仔細(xì)分析一下,如果國內(nèi)企業(yè)過分依賴國外市場,同時又盲目地擴(kuò)大項目規(guī)模,當(dāng)國際市場需求飽和時,產(chǎn)能過剩將令眾多光伏企業(yè)陷入窘境。事實上,這次席卷全球的金融危機(jī),已經(jīng)將這一把“利劍”懸在了光伏企業(yè)頭頂。例如,如德國、西班牙兩個國家的太陽能光伏市場占?xì)W洲60%以上,今年的采購計劃比上年降低了一半左右。海外市場訂單銳減,光伏產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)能供過于求,降價競爭就成為必然,本已低廉的利潤就更少了。

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??? 同時,金融危機(jī)導(dǎo)致金融機(jī)構(gòu)紛紛控制信貸規(guī)模,風(fēng)險投資機(jī)構(gòu)縮減資本注入,證券市場行情暴跌,光伏企業(yè)資金鏈高度緊張。目前,我國有江西賽維、無錫尚德等11家境外上市企業(yè),IPO融資總額達(dá)19.77億美元,總市值曾高達(dá)180億美元,但在這一輪金融危機(jī)中縮水嚴(yán)重。據(jù)分析,國內(nèi)已有80%的光伏企業(yè)面臨資金短缺問題。

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??? 專家指出,只有千方百計降低光伏電源的投資與電能成本,才能爭取更大的利潤空間。同時,大力挖掘國內(nèi)市場,才能吸收消化快速增長的產(chǎn)能。

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??? 亟需政策扶持

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??? 其實,無論是提升技術(shù)水平降低成本,還是開拓國內(nèi)市場,如果沒有法規(guī)和政策的強(qiáng)力推動,太陽能光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)很難有較快的發(fā)展。

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??? 放眼國際,太陽能光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展成熟的國家,光伏企業(yè)都在不同程度上享受了政策扶持。中國科學(xué)院電工研究所嚴(yán)陸光院士介紹說:“像日本、美國及歐洲等國家,都有鼓勵光伏發(fā)電上網(wǎng)的優(yōu)惠政策。比如說,投資建一個太陽能發(fā)電設(shè)施之后,用戶可以無條件接入電網(wǎng),所發(fā)電量既可以自己用也可以高價賣給電網(wǎng)從而享受電價補(bǔ)貼。”

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??? 世界各國對太陽能光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)的扶持力度仍然在加強(qiáng)。日本政府在2008年11月發(fā)布的“太陽能發(fā)電普及行動計劃”確定,到2030年,太陽能發(fā)電量將達(dá)到2005年的40倍,并在3到5年后,將太陽能電池系統(tǒng)的價格降至目前的一半左右;2009年,日本還專門安排了30億日元的補(bǔ)助金,專項鼓勵太陽能蓄電池的技術(shù)開發(fā)。法國宣布,大幅提高對大型商業(yè)屋頂系統(tǒng)所生成的太陽能進(jìn)行補(bǔ)償,加快太陽能發(fā)電設(shè)施的安裝。目前,美國總統(tǒng)奧巴馬承諾將使美國替代能源產(chǎn)量在未來3年里翻一番,美國能源部日前宣布為光伏工藝制造的6個光伏模組孵化計劃提供1760萬美元的獎勵津貼;美國最近通過的《聯(lián)邦投資賦稅優(yōu)惠》法案明確,太陽能光伏發(fā)電投資額的30%可獲政府現(xiàn)金補(bǔ)助。

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??? 相比之下,我國在政策扶持方面仍然存在空白。我國一直沒有實施《上網(wǎng)電價法》,相關(guān)光伏項目的立項、補(bǔ)貼等審批也很嚴(yán)格,國內(nèi)市場需求嚴(yán)重不足。在中國,想做一個發(fā)電項目需要國家批準(zhǔn),也就是通過發(fā)改委審核,至于電價多少也是依照項目來審定的,沒有一個統(tǒng)一的政策標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。盡管我國在2006年實施了《可再生能源法》,但由于這部法規(guī)中“上網(wǎng)電價”多為概念性、框架性的政策,因此到目前為止,電力部門還沒有正式接受光伏發(fā)電上網(wǎng),國內(nèi)已經(jīng)建成的示范項目也還是按照試驗項目并網(wǎng)。?


??? 政府支持光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)的積極信號已經(jīng)顯現(xiàn)。近來,中國的“太陽能屋頂計劃”為光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)注入強(qiáng)心劑。財政部聯(lián)合多部委出臺了《關(guān)于加快推進(jìn)太陽能光電建筑應(yīng)用的實施意見》和《太陽能光電建筑應(yīng)用財政補(bǔ)助資金管理暫行辦法》,同時還公布《關(guān)于支持加快太陽能光電建筑應(yīng)用的政策解讀》,支持開展光電建筑應(yīng)用示范、實施“太陽能屋頂計劃”以及城市光電建筑一體化應(yīng)用。

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??? 但《意見》只是綱領(lǐng)性文件,更細(xì)化的實施規(guī)定和方案還有待推出。專家建議,具體政策可以參照國外成熟經(jīng)驗,如對符合條件的光電建筑應(yīng)用予以補(bǔ)助,以部分彌補(bǔ)光電應(yīng)用的初始投入;對光伏發(fā)電以優(yōu)惠價格予以全額收購,對光伏電池生產(chǎn)企業(yè)予以稅收和信貸上的支持等。

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