幾天前，ARM首席執(zhí)行官Warren East在財報會表示，董事會與股東長期以來一直想買AMD，由于后者目前正重估戰(zhàn)略，眼下機會大增。

 

要在3年前，這定會引來嘲笑。因為，當時ARM與AMD一個身在通信市場，一個身在PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" 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title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" 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title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC領(lǐng)域，誰也不買誰的賬。

 

那Warren East是借機給投資人講故事嗎？要知道，一個多月來，ARM股價大幅飆升。

 

筆者認為，ARM買下AMD可能未必成行，人們在批評英特爾移動互聯(lián)網(wǎng)戰(zhàn)略受困于處理器功耗難題時，可能對ARM移動互聯(lián)網(wǎng)現(xiàn)有優(yōu)勢地位過于樂觀了?；蛘哒f，他的話，變相傳達的是ARM的一種危機感。面對英特爾、IPS" title="MIPS">MIPS等強敵，它不能等著對手突破低功耗技術(shù)障礙，必須盡快拓展新出路。

 

過去幾年，ARM在物理IP、工具等方面做了垂直整合，但在64位處理器技術(shù)及高主頻方面并未顯出優(yōu)勢，目前還缺乏主流操作系統(tǒng)微軟的更多支持。

 

上述這些是AMD的強項。AMD雖被英特爾長期壓制，但卻是PC產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈最大的制衡力量。業(yè)內(nèi)甚至認為，AMD之所以落后英特爾，非技術(shù)所致，而是商業(yè)與運營不力。

 

ARM如能買下AMD，既能掌控手機與平板產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈，也能滲透至少20%~30%的PC市場，等于說通吃產(chǎn)業(yè)上游了。

 

但這合理的商業(yè)邏輯卻不大可行。業(yè)內(nèi)有觀點認為，主要或許是財力不夠，ARM年營收僅6億美元左右，屬于“小而美”企業(yè)，AMD則是個大塊頭。但筆者認為，上述ARM收購AMD不可行并不在于財務(wù)問題——依ARM地位，獲得財務(wù)杠桿不難——而最重要的是各自的模式：ARM為授權(quán)模式，即將架構(gòu)與專利授權(quán)給許多處理器設(shè)計企業(yè)，而英特爾則是自己設(shè)計處理器；ARM收購AMD，等于跟自己原合作伙伴打架。另一方面，AMD架構(gòu)來自英特爾，專利權(quán)自然掌握在英特爾手中，ARM收購AMD，等于為英特爾打工。

 

筆者去年曾分析過英特爾收購ARM不具可行性，理由異曲同工。如果成真，在ARM授權(quán)模式下生活的許多處理器企業(yè)將直面生死——除非英特爾改變商業(yè)模式，走向開放授權(quán)，但短期內(nèi)幾乎看不到任何希望。截至目前，英特爾架構(gòu)的處理器企業(yè)僅4家。

 

ARM與AMD之間是否就沒了變通合作機會？當然有，而且同樣會讓英特爾緊張。那就是AMD主動出擊，既沿用英特爾架構(gòu)，也購買ARM授權(quán)。前者用來打擊英特爾PC產(chǎn)業(yè)，后者用來拓展智能手機與平板市場。由于AMD2009年已淡化制造業(yè)，拋棄了類似英特爾的IDM模式，這并不妨害現(xiàn)有運營模式。

 

因此，筆者認為，與其說是收購，不如說是合作與融合。前不久，AMD已經(jīng)傳出或?qū)①徺IARM授權(quán)，以拓展平板市場。事實上，AMD的顯示處理器中，早有ARM技術(shù)。

 

如果“ARM+AMD”的雙A合作成真，并走向深入，借助AMD的處理器設(shè)計力量、基于微軟系統(tǒng)的方案以及PC產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈，有望快速形成真正顛覆手機與PC產(chǎn)業(yè)的核心力量。事實上，英特爾已經(jīng)采用相像的動作。去年它收購了英飛凌的無線業(yè)務(wù)，而后者的核心產(chǎn)品正是基于ARM的架構(gòu)。

 

大概會有人問，蘋果iPad已在手機與PC交融地帶讓人驚奇，還有什么值得期待的呢？那不過是一種過渡形態(tài)，其中的處理器基于ARM架構(gòu)，連蘋果自身都承認并非最理想的產(chǎn)品?？雌饋?，一個真正的產(chǎn)業(yè)融合時代還沒有到來，到時候誰能勝出，要看現(xiàn)在誰能將對立陣營的資源融合得更快。